MUSKEGON – The Muskegon Lumberjacks will be playing a really, really big game on Friday night at home, against a really, really good opponent.

Of course the season would not be over if the Jacks lost to Dubuque in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinal series, but their backs would be instantly against the wall.

That’s because the series is another short two-of-three affair, and will move back to Dubuque on Sunday for Game 2 and Monday for Game 3, if necessary.

It would be a whole lot easier for Muskegon to win the first game at home, so only one victory would be necessary in Iowa.

“Can we win two in Dubuque if we have to? The answer is yes,” said Lumberjacks Coach Mike Hamilton. “But winning Game 1 will be really important, so then we can figure out how to win one of two games. There’s no other way we would prefer it.”

The regular season standings say that Dubuque is the better of the two teams. The Fighting Saints finished in second place in the USHL’s Eastern Conference with a 40-16-6 record and 86 points in the standings, while Muskegon finished third with a 33-23-6 record and 72 points.

But the Jacks have a 4-3 record against the Fighting Saints this season, with two of those wins coming in Dubuque.

The Lumberjacks’ level of success against Dubuque at different times during the season mirrored how they were playing in general.

They lost two at home to the Fighting Saints on Oct. 29-30, when they were playing badly and were mired in last place in the conference.

The Jacks swept two games in Dubuque on Nov. 19-20, just as they were embarking on a 2½ month hot streak that would take them from last place to first for a few days.

Muskegon swept Dubuque at home on March 18-19, just as the Jacks were starting to emerge from a slump that came on the heels of the long hot streak.

In the teams’ last meeting, on April 8  in Dubuque , the Jacks lost 4-3 in a game that could have gone either way.

The promising news is that the Lumberjacks are starting to resemble the team that dominated the league from mid-November through January.

They won four of their last five regular season games, then completely dismantled Cedar Rapids in the first round of the playoffs earlier this week with 6-0 and 6-1 victories.

The offense was clicking, with five different players scoring in the first game and six finding the net in Game 2.

Two areas that were concerning all season – goaltending and special teams – suddenly turned into strengths. Goalie Chase Clark was red-hot, stopping 64 of 65 shots in the two games. The Lumberjacks were 6-for-8 on the power play, and held Cedar Rapids scoreless in seven chances.

Hamilton said the team has improved in numerous ways since the slump in February and March, particularly when it comes to team defense and special teams. He also said the players are feeling confident after smashing Cedar Rapids in the first round of the playoffs.

Hamilton thinks the fact that Dubuque did not play a first-round series (the Fighting Saints earned a bye by finishing second in the conference) could be an advantage for the Jacks.

“Everyone has got to be feeling good about themselves,” Hamilton said about his players. “We won a series and we’re moving forward, But there’s no overconfidence. We know we’re going up against one of the best teams in the league. But as we’ve always said, there’s not a team in this league that we don’t think we can play with.

“I like where we’re at. I like the fact that we only had one injury in the first series, and we’re coming in playoff-tested. This is (Dubuque’s) first playoff series, so we will have an opportunity to jump on them early. They will have playoff nerves at first, no doubt about it.”

There’s also no doubting Dubuque’s strengths. Like the Lumberjacks, the Fighting Saints have plenty of firepower on their forward lines.

Dubuque’s Stephen Halliday was the second-leading scorer in the league in the regular season with 35 goals and 60 assists. Connor Kurth was fifth in the league with 35 goals and 46 assists and Jackson Hallum was 13^th with 29 goals and 41 assists.

Muskegon’s Quinn Hutson was eighth in the league with 33 goals and 40 assists. Joey Larson was 16h with 32 goals and 34 assists, while Jack Williams (18 goals, 41 assists) and Ben Strinden (25 goals, 32 assists) were 19^th and 20^th in the league, respectively.

Dubuque would seemingly have the edge in goaltending. Philip Svedeback was fifth in the league during the regular season with an excellent 2.95 goals against average while his teammate Paxton Geisel was 11^th with a 3.13 mark.

Statistically, Muskegon’s top goalie was Aleksandr Kuleshov, who finished 20^th in the league with a 4.01 GAA, but if Clark stays hot in net, the goalie battle between the two teams should even out.

“They have three lines of forwards as good as any,” Hamilton said about the Fighting Saints. “They have absolute snipers who can score at any opportunity. They are also well coached, keep the game in front of them and play good team defense.

“Our two teams kind of mirror each other in how we play. We have similar styles and we match up well with each other. I don’t think you will get a game with more than a two-goal spread in this series. It will be tightly contested.”